Coincident and Leading Indicators for Brazilian Cycles

Aloisio Campelo (), Ataman Ozyildirim, Jing Sima-Friedman, Paulo Picchetti and Sarah Piassi Machado Lima
Additional contact information
Aloisio Campelo: FGV/IBRE
Jing Sima-Friedman: The Conference Board Inc.
Paulo Picchetti: Fundação Getulio Vargas, Brazil/IBRE/São Paulo School of Economics
Sarah Piassi Machado Lima: FGV/IBRE

A chapter in Business Cycles in BRICS, 2019, pp 315-329 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In this chapter, we develop coincident and leading indexes of economic activity for Brazil following the approach used by The Conference Board (TCB). We show that our selection of coincident indicators and the composite index created from them closely follow the Brazilian Business Cycle Dating Committee (CODACE) chronology. Using the coincident index as the target variable, we select a small set of leading indicators and show that the composite index of these indicators help predict turning points in the business cycle better than its individual components.

Keywords: Business cycle; Turning points; Indicators; Coincident index; Leading index; Time series; Markov switching/forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C52 C53 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:socchp:978-3-319-90017-9_18

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783319900179

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-90017-9_18

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Societies and Political Orders in Transition from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().