Tracking Business and Growth Cycles in the Chinese Economy Using Composite Indexes

Ataman Ozyildirim

A chapter in Business Cycles in BRICS, 2019, pp 405-423 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In many countries, composite indexes of leading economic indicators (LEI) are used to help predict short-term cyclical fluctuations of the economy in conjunction with composite indexes of coincident economic indicators (CEI). They also serve to analyze short-term macroeconomic dynamics of the business cycle. Predicting turning points in the business cycle is extremely challenging, but the long history of research on leading indicators provides empirical evidence that LEIs can help in this task. This chapter describes the process behind the construction of one of the most challenging-to-construct indexes for China. We discuss The Conference Board’s selection of leading indicators of the Chinese economy since 1986 and how this selection evolved after the initial publication of the LEI and CEI for China. Chronologies of business and growth cycles are used to evaluate the selected indicators.

Keywords: Leading Economic Indicators (LEI); Conference Board; Business Cycle Chronology; Coincident Indicators; Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:socchp:978-3-319-90017-9_25

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-90017-9_25

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