China’s Economic Cycles: Characteristics and Determinant Factors

Junli Zhao, Degang Jia and Wei Chang ()
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Junli Zhao: China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center, National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of China
Degang Jia: China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center, National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of China
Wei Chang: China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center, National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of China

A chapter in Business Cycles in BRICS, 2019, pp 175-184 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This article uses the “trough-to-trough method” to identify ten economic cycles in China since 1953 and introduces the main characteristics of the periodic evolutions, such as from classical cycle to growth rate cycle, the cycle duration increased, the cycle position lifted up, nonperiodical fluctuations became less volatile, and the period of expansion extended. The authors also analyze the influencing factors of the cycle evolution, including economic system reform, economic structure improvement, investment fluctuation, consumption fluctuation, and the fluctuation of foreign demand. External shocks have a certain influence as well, and macroeconomic policies also play a role in shaping the cycles.

Keywords: Economic Cycle; Growth Rate Cycle; Economic System Reform; Investment Fluctuations; Non-periodic Fluctuations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-90017-9_9

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