COVID-19 and Seasonal Adjustment

Barend Abeln () and Jan Jacobs

Chapter Chapter 5 in Seasonal Adjustment Without Revisions, 2023, pp 53-61 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In this chapter, we study the impact of COVID-19 on seasonal adjustment. We focus on whether special adjustments are required to treat the COVID-19 crisis as an outlier as suggested by Eurostat in the application of three seasonal adjustment procedures: X-13ARIMA-SEATS, the industry standard, STL (Seasonal-Trend decomposition based on Loess), and a new method CAMPLET, an acronym of its tuning parameters. In addition, we investigate whether revisions occur. We show results of seasonal adjustments for the quarterly series real GDP in the Netherlands and for the weekly series U.S. Initial Claims. Seasonal adjustment with X-13ARIMA-SEATS and CAMPLET requires modifications in the implementation of the standard procedure to treat the COVID-19 crisis as an outlier; STL can be applied straightforwardly. Differences in seasonally adjusted values are generally small around COVID-19. Finally, X-13ARIMA-SEATS and STL seasonal adjustments are subject to revision, which probably will lead to the COVID-19 crisis becoming less deep when new observations become available.

Date: 2023
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Related works:
Journal Article: COVID-19 and Seasonal Adjustment (2022)
Working Paper: COVID19 and Seasonal Adjustment (2021)
Working Paper: COVID-19 and seasonal adjustment (2021)
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-22845-2_5

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