A Framework for Hybrid Risk Analysis

Maryna Zharikova (), Rudy Milani () and Stefan Wolfgang Pickl ()
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Maryna Zharikova: Bundeswehr University Munich
Rudy Milani: Bundeswehr University Munich
Stefan Wolfgang Pickl: Bundeswehr University Munich

A chapter in Dynamics of Disasters, 2026, pp 29-45 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Hybrid threats (HTs) challenge our ability to respond to their dynamic and multidimensional nature. This paper presents a novel framework for hybrid risk analysis, addressing the gaps in existing approaches by incorporating multidimensional risk dimensions, spatial dependence, and dynamic assessments. Unlike conventional methods that focus solely on probability and damage, our framework evaluates hybrid threat potential, exposure, vulnerability, and restoration costs at three stages of the crisis management cycle: pre-crisis, response, and post-crisis. This enables security teams to allocate resources effectively and make real-time decisions. By integrating spatially distributed risk assessments and dynamic risk mapping, the framework enhances situational awareness and supports decision-making across all stages of crisis management. The proposed approach provides a foundation for proactive prevention, timely response, and efficient recovery from hybrid threats.

Keywords: Hybrid threat; Hybrid attack; Hybrid operation; Hybrid risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-08606-8_3

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