A global climate change risk assessment of droughts and floods

Wolfgang Knorr () and Marko Scholze ()
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Wolfgang Knorr: University of Bristol
Marko Scholze: University of Bristol

A chapter in Economics and Management of Climate Change, 2008, pp 37-52 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The use of information from climate model simulations by policy makers and other potential users poses great challenges. On the one hand, researchers are rightly cautious about prediction, as the uncertainties are large. On the other hand, policy makers may be used to dealing with great uncertainties, and may be quite prepared to use assessments of risk levels. A new way of assessing a comprehensive ensemble of climate model simulations is presented, using 16 climate models and various scenarios of future levels of greenhouse gas levels. We compute annual soil water runoff, and we define as a risk a situation where the mean during 2071–2100 deviates from the 1961–1990 mean by more than one standard deviation (1σ ) of the current variability. We find that in general, larger degrees of warming lead to larger areas and populations affected, with substantial risks for tropical countries even at low degrees of global warming.

Keywords: Climate change; risk assessment; climate policy; drought; flood (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-0-387-77353-7_4

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DOI: 10.1007/978-0-387-77353-7_4

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