McKendrick and Kermack on epidemic modelling (1926–1927)

Nicolas Bacaër ()
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Nicolas Bacaër: IRD (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement)

Chapter Chapter 16 in A Short History of Mathematical Population Dynamics, 2011, pp 89-96 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In 1926 McKendrick studied a stochastic epidemic model and found a method to compute the probability for an epidemic to reach a certain final size. He also discovered the partial differential equation governing age-structured populations in a continuous-time framework. In 1927 Kermack and McKendrick studied a deterministic epidemic model and obtained an equation for the final epidemic size, which emphasizes a certain threshold for the population density. Large epidemics can occur above but not below this threshold. These works are still very much used in contemporary epidemiology.

Keywords: Epidemic Modelling; Infected Person; Infected People; Secondary Case; Epidemic Size (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-115-8_16

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