Bayesian Prediction Under Asymmetric Linear Loss: Forecasting State Tax Revenues in Iowa

Charles H. Whiteman
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Charles H. Whiteman: The University of Iowa, 108 PBAB Suite 230

A chapter in Modelling and Prediction Honoring Seymour Geisser, 1996, pp 149-166 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract For the past five years, forecasts of regional economic conditions and state tax revenues under the Iowa Economic Forecasting Project have been produced using a Bayesian approach to multivariate time series analysis. This paper provides an assessment of that effort and addresses issues which have arisen in the specification of the time series models, collection of data, specification of prior distributions, and the production and interpretation of forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss.

Keywords: Income Growth; Farm Income; Predictive Density; Perverse Incentive; Revenue Growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1996
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-1-4612-2414-3_9

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DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4612-2414-3_9

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