An Application of Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Agent-Based Models

Sotiris Papadelis and Alexandros Flamos ()
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Sotiris Papadelis: University of Piraeus (UNIPI)
Alexandros Flamos: University of Piraeus (UNIPI)

A chapter in Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy, 2019, pp 79-95 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In this chapter, a step-by-step application of calibrating an agent-based model is presented. In particular, an agent-based model for small-scale PV adoption was calibrated on the historical data for the small-scale solar PV capacity additions that took place in Greece from January 2010 to February 2013. The process of the model calibration allowed to (a) quantify and take into consideration uncertainties that are related to the characteristics and the decision-making criteria of the agents (i.e. independent PV power producers), in contrast to the more obvious uncertainties, such as technology costs, and (b) use the calibration results to explore the plausible—given the historical data—behaviour of the potential PV adopters in Greece under the new net-metering scheme (in effect as of mid-2015).

Keywords: Agent-based; Calibration; Stochastic emulators; History matching; Uncertainty quantification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-03152-7_3

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-03152-7_3

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