Modeling Social and Geopolitical Disasters as Extreme Events: A Case Study Considering the Complex Dynamics of International Armed Conflicts

Reinaldo Roberto Rosa (), Joshi Neelakshi, Gabriel Augusto L. L. Pinheiro (), Paulo Henrique Barchi () and Elcio Hideiti Shiguemori
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Reinaldo Roberto Rosa: Lab for Computing and Applied Mathematics-INPE
Joshi Neelakshi: CAP-INPE
Gabriel Augusto L. L. Pinheiro: CAP-INPE
Paulo Henrique Barchi: CAP-INPE
Elcio Hideiti Shiguemori: Rov. Tamoios, Geo-intelligence Division, Institute of Advanced Studies (IEAV)

A chapter in Towards Mathematics, Computers and Environment: A Disasters Perspective, 2019, pp 233-254 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Just as various sorts of extreme climatic events are identified in Earth’s atmosphere, so are some types of extreme events in our sociosphere. A geopolitical conflict that can result in a social disaster is an example. In this chapter, the turbulent-like dynamics of international armed conflicts are treated within the scope of complex multi-agent systems explicitly considering the properties of multiplicative non-homogeneous cascade where endogeny and exogeny are key points in the mathematical model of the phenomenon. As a main result, this study introduces a cellular automata prototype that allows characterizing regimes of extreme armed conflicts such as the 9∕11 terrorist attacks and the great world wars.

Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-21205-6_12

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-21205-6_12

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