Methodological Proposal for the Prediction of Hydrological Responses to Land-Uses and Land-Cover Changes in a Brazilian Watershed

Lidiane dos Santos Lima (), Paulo Cesar Colonna Rosman (), Julia Celia Mercedes Strauch, Nelson Ferreira Fernandes and Letícia de Carvalho Giannella
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Lidiane dos Santos Lima: Protection and Civil Defense Municipal Office
Paulo Cesar Colonna Rosman: Ocean Engineering Program, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
Julia Celia Mercedes Strauch: National School of Statistical Sciences, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
Nelson Ferreira Fernandes: Department of Geography, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
Letícia de Carvalho Giannella: National School of Statistical Sciences, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics

A chapter in Towards Mathematics, Computers and Environment: A Disasters Perspective, 2019, pp 103-124 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The land-use and land-cover (LULC) can undergo major changes as urbanization increases in a region. These continuous changes are a big challenge for the management of water resources, since numerous studies show that these changes directly affect the availability and surface runoff of water in a watershed. The present research mapped the diagnosis and prognosis of hydrological responses of a Brazilian watershed through projections of the past (1985), present (2015), and future (2030) LULCC, in scenarios of excess and scarcity of precipitation. The tools used to execute the proposed methodology were land-uses and land-cover changes (LULCC) and hydrological models, the land change modeler (LCM) and soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), respectively. The subwatersheds modeled during the 45 years simulation presented changes of 59.0% of the total area, which directly impacted the simulated results of maximum flows for all subwatersheds. Thus, the obtained results provided an integrated view based on the behavior of the local population and the physical characteristics of the regions, generating pertinent information that can serve as subsidies for managers and decision makers to mitigate the risk of hydrological natural disasters.

Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-21205-6_6

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-21205-6_6

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