Modeling and Simulation

Richard M. Adler
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Richard M. Adler: DecisionPath

Chapter Chapter 8 in Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences, 2020, pp 107-126 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The key to bending the Law of Unintended Consequences (LUC) in the face of bounded rationality is to improve anticipation of the consequences of critical decisions. This chapter surveys leading modeling and simulation techniques that enable this effort. Section 8.1 explains why these tools are superior to predictive analytics for projecting outcomes of critical decisions. Sections 8.2 through 8.4 present synopses of individual techniques. Each synopsis introduces a recurring analytical problem that arises when trying to anticipate outcomes for critical decisions. It then explains how the given modeling or simulation technique alleviates that aspect of bounded rationality. Section 8.5 summarizes the “sweet spots” for the various modeling and simulation tools—the specific type of situational dynamic or source of uncertainty they were designed to address.

Keywords: Modeling; Simulation; Dynamics; Uncertainty; Game theory; Utility theory; Agent-based systems; Complex adaptive systems; System dynamics; War games; Process models; Network models; Monte Carlo; Bayesian inference; Real options (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-32714-9_8

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-32714-9_8

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