Resampling Methods to Assess the Forecasting Ability of Mortality Models

David Atance (), Ana Debón () and Eliseo Navarro ()
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David Atance: University of Alcala
Ana Debón: Universitat Politècnica de València
Eliseo Navarro: University of Alcala

A chapter in Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance, 2021, pp 45-50 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Given the number of mortality models that have been considered in the literature, it is difficult to choose one model to forecast the probabilities of deaths. In this paper, we use the resampling methods to meet the mortality model that has a better forecasting ability. These techniques are a statistical tool that allows assessing the predictive performance of different models and which have not been used to compare mortality models. We employ four resampling methods that test the forecasting ability of three variations of the original Lee-Carter model in several European countries. The aim of this paper to compare different mortality models in terms of forecasting ability in the population studied by applying the resampling methods.

Keywords: Cross-validation; Lee-carter model; Forecasting ability; Resampling methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-78965-7_8

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-78965-7_8

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