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How Do Energy Market Shocks Affect Economic Activity in the US Under Changing Financial Conditions?

Mehmet Balcilar, Ojonugwa Usman and David Roubaud ()
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David Roubaud: Montpellier Business School

Chapter Chapter 4 in Applications in Energy Finance, 2022, pp 85-114 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Credit markets play a crucial role in the propagation of shocks through an economy. Both economic uncertainty and oil market shocks transmit through credit markets to various sectors of an economy. However, the transmission of the shocks depends on the state of an economy as crises periods behave quite differently from normal times. We use a nonlinear vector autoregressive (VAR) model to study the transmission of uncertainty and oil market shocks using monthly data over the 1986:M1–2021:M1 period. The nonlinear VAR model allows the transmission of uncertainty and oil market shocks to a change during financial distress periods. We find that economic uncertainty is closely related to financial conditions and transmission dynamic change during financial crises. Uncertainty shocks are recessionary with a stronger effect during financial distress. Oil supply shocks associated with increasing oil prices are also recessionary and stronger during financial distress while positive demand shocks are expansionary. We find strong asymmetry in responses of macroeconomic aggregates across financial regimes and signs of the shocks.

Keywords: Oil prices; Economic activity; Uncertainty; Stochastic volatility; Financial markets; Threshold VARs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 E44 G01 Q41 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-92957-2_4

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