Simulation Applications in Analyzing the Trade-Off Between Climate Change and Energy Consumption

Amin Vahidi
Additional contact information
Amin Vahidi: Shahid Beheshti University, Facility of Mechanics and Energy

A chapter in Handbook of Smart Energy Systems, 2023, pp 1509-1534 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The United Nations estimates that 90% of the worst disasters occurred as a result of Climate Change. From an ecological point of view, Global Warming can cause far-reaching changes in the environment, biodiversity and human life. Today, scientists and experts in climatology and environmental sciences believe that one of the causes of global Climate Change in recent years has been the increase in Greenhouse Gases. Human emissions of carbon dioxide come from two main sources: burning fossil fuels and changing land use, such as deforestation. In this research System Dynamics methodology used. System Dynamics method is based on concept of feedback loops. If the loop amplify itself, it is a positive feedback or reinforcing loop. And if increasing in a variable cause itself to decrease so it is a negative or balancing feedback loop. The overall System Dynamics stock and flow model presented based on these concepts. Time horizon of this model simulation of this model is from 2020 to 2100. Simulation if current situation continues in 2050 and 2100, Global Warming will be 2.38 and 5.56 than 2020. It is catastrophic and make earth hardly habitable. Also the simulation shows in 2100 Fossil Fuel Consumption will be 2.1 times of 2020 in an exponential pattern. In 2100 vegetation decreased from 55% to 33%. So animals and plants will extinct with extremely high speed and earth will be a lifeless planet with current trend. So if Global Warming continues, it only take a decade to reach an irreversible point. If human race improve 30% in Public Awareness about Global Warming effects and Policies, Laws, Guidelines effectiveness on deforestation and forest growth, Global Warming will decrease to 41% in 2050 and 37% in 2100. So a global effort needed to save the earth and humankind.

Keywords: Climate Change; Global Warming; Fossil Fuel Consumption; Greenhouse Gases; System Dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-97940-9_53

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783030979409

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-97940-9_53

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Springer Books from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().