Conclusions and Potential Futures

Neil Shenai ()

Chapter Chapter 4 in Escaping the Governance Trap, 2022, pp 135-147 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The main conclusions and limitations of Escaping the Governance Trap are presented. Key limitations include this book’s methodology, case selection, focus on economic rather than political reforms, its reticence on the sources of good institutions, and its emphasis on the United States. Several potential futures are then presented, including baseline, downside, and upside scenarios. Trajectories will depend on the balance of power between the Northern Triangle’s autonomous states and non-state groups such as transnational criminal organizations, the degree of international support, global economic conditions, and geopolitics. While this list of variables is not exhaustive, it does yield several potential narratives for how the future could unfold for the region and the implications therein. The book closes with a call to action, noting how helping Northern Triangle countries escape their governance traps is critical to regional security and prosperity.

Keywords: Governance trap; Northern Triangle economic reform; Scenario analysis of the Northern Triangle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-99023-7_4

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-99023-7_4

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