Medium Term: Where Are Emerging Markets Headed?

Ali Zafar ()

Chapter Chapter 5 in Emerging Markets in a World of Chaos, 2023, pp 141-162 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The world in the next 25 years is unpredictable, of course, but a few trends may be identifiable and relevant. The world economy until 2050 and beyond will face a series of structural shifts that will affect both advanced and developing economies. Six tailwinds and six headwinds are identified. The tailwinds are: good macroeconomic fundamentals; improving health and education coupled with young demography; rise of capital market and fintech with growing private sector; growing state capacity; regional trade and skills upgrading; and the rise of renewables. Headwinds are: macro uncertainties, including low global growth, inflation and high debt; growing inequality and gender discrimination; end of an era of cheap money; authoritarian populism, institutional weakening, and corruption; selective deglobalization and productivity shortfalls; and accelerating climate change that represents an existential threat to the planet.

Keywords: Macroeconomic fundamentals; Reserves; Inflation; Current account deficit; Debt; Health; Life expectancy; Equity markets; Private sector; Fintech; Policymakers; Regional trade; Skills; ICT; Renewables; Inequality; Discrimination; Monetary policy; Populism; Corruption; Democracy; Deglobalization; Productivity; Supply chain; Climate change; Energy transition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-29949-0_5

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-29949-0_5

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