The Slowdown in the Data

Edmund Phelps, Hian Hoon and Gylfi Zoega ()
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Gylfi Zoega: University of Iceland

Chapter 5 in The Great Economic Slowdown, 2023, pp 69-95 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The data is explored in light of the models. Using principal components analysis, we derive the common pattern of the causal variables: productivity growth, population growth and public debt; and the affected variables—real interest rates, investment, share prices, the share of profits, male labor force participation and unemployment. The estimation of a Taylor equation shows the effect of a fall in productivity growth on equilibrium real interest rates. A panel regression using historical data shows that the productivity slowdown has affected the rate of return to shares and housing, investment, real wage growth and employment.

Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-31441-4_5

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-31441-4_5

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