VAT Elasticities on Imports as a Lever to Forecast Collection: Mexico 2010–2021

Javier Moreno Espinosa (), Leovardo Mata Mata () and Jaime Humberto Beltrán-Godoy ()
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Javier Moreno Espinosa: Universidad Panamericana
Leovardo Mata Mata: Universidad Anáhuac México
Jaime Humberto Beltrán-Godoy: Universidad Anáhuac México

Chapter Chapter 6 in Creating Economic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty, 2023, pp 115-139 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter obtained the elasticities of VAT collection with respect to merchandise imports classified in the 99 chapters of the International Harmonized System 2010–2021. Evidence of an equilibrium relationship, in the long run, was found by cointegration in a VEC model. The results show that sixteen chapters explain 82% of the value of imports with different elasticities which allows identifying the sensitivity of VAT collection in generating income from imports. The chapters that stand out are machinery and electrical material; mechanical devices, boilers, and their parts; goods related to land transport and its parts, and mineral fuels and their products. The elasticities can be a lever that contributes to a better forecast of tax government revenues, specifically of the second source of income.

Keywords: Cointegration; Error correction vector; VAT collection; Classification; E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-41386-5_6

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-41386-5_6

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