The Question of Conjecture in Economics and Probability: On the Applicability of Probability Theory to the Randomness of Economic Events

Volkan Hacıoğlu ()
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Volkan Hacıoğlu: Istanbul University

Chapter Chapter 5 in The Economic Analysis of Random Events, 2024, pp 71-107 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter inspects the question of conjecture in economics and probability in relation to the assumption of perfect foresight or more technically apodictic certainty. The main theme for this part is appropriated for the query on the practical applicability of probability theory to the randomness of economic events. In other words, how far is it possible to apply probability theory to economic events which are in nature erratic and uncertain? In this chapter, multidisciplinary approach will be adopted in order to reach practitioners and other scholars in social sciences. A comparative analysis between different branches of social sciences such as history, sociology, etc., will allow us to understand how far the practical applicability is appropriate and plausible. Particularly in economics and generally in other social sciences heavy utilization of intricate econometric models is being increasingly criticized as futile. Manipulation and domination of data over scientific knowledge is another part of the problem. The article titled “Scientism and Study of Society” by Hayek is an inspiration for this purpose.

Keywords: Conjecture; Uncertainty; Erratic pattern of random variables; Perfect foresight; Apodictic certainty; Scientism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-53078-4_5

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-53078-4_5

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