Introduction: Why and How This Book Has Been Written?

Yuri G. Raydugin
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Yuri G. Raydugin: Risk Services & Solutions Inc.

Chapter Chapter 1 in Risk-Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty, 2024, pp 1-10 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This introductory chapter describes the author’s personal project risk management (PRM) experience and the reasons why this book has been written. Shortcomings and limitations of the traditional PRM discovered at the beginning of the PRM career are pointed to. Undertaken steps to branch out of the Procrustean bed of the traditional PRM are outlined. Main ideas, concepts and paradigms introduced in this book—predict-then-act and monitor-and-adapt decision-making paradigms, risk interactions, non-linear Monte Carlo methodology, systems dynamic modelling, project system’s complexity, game theory, deep uncertainties, dynamic adaptive methodology, etc.—are introduced at high level to further explore in consecutive chapters. Two primary paradigm shifts—to non-linear Monte Carlo methodology and to deep uncertainty concept—are laid out. Transition from the traditional predict-then-act to monitor-and-adapt decision-making is justified. High-level roadmap and structure of the book are set out.

Keywords: Predict-then-act decision-making; Monitor-and-adapt decision-making; Non-linear Monte Carlo methodology; Systems dynamic modelling; Project complexity; Game theory; Deep uncertainties (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-56988-3_1

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-56988-3_1

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