Systems Dynamics and Project Rework Cycle Model

Yuri G. Raydugin
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Yuri G. Raydugin: Risk Services & Solutions Inc.

Chapter Chapter 10 in Risk-Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty, 2024, pp 291-322 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Systems thinking and dynamics have played a supportive role in development of the nonlinear Monte Carlo methodology, which domiciles in the Monte Carlo modelling platform. In turn, systems dynamics could come to the fore as a primary modelling approach that could take usual project risks and their interactions into account without any Monte Carlo modelling. A so-called project rework cycle model is used as a starting point. It could be understood as a project workflow model with feedback loops representing reworks due to poor work quality. It recognizes only quality risks. The challenge to consistently add all other relevant project risks to the rework cycle model is met in this chapter. Generic systems dynamics modelling principles are introduced in this chapter. (Besides the rework cycle modelling they are used for exploratory modelling and scenario development when dealing with future states of external project environment (Chap. 11 ).) An upgraded rework cycle model that can include any project risks is put forward. A pertaining case study mimics schedule results of the N-SCRA modelling case. This demonstrates that nonlinear Monte Carlo and systems dynamics models may produce comparable results based on the same systems dynamics principles.

Keywords: Systems dynamics; Systems thinking; Feedback loop; Causal loop diagram; Project rework cycle model; Remaining work; Undiscover rework; A bathtub model; S-shape growth; Unlimited growth; Overshoot-and-collapse system’s behaviour (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-56988-3_10

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