Dynamic Adaptive System (DAS)

Yuri G. Raydugin
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Yuri G. Raydugin: Risk Services & Solutions Inc.

Chapter Chapter 11 in Risk-Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty, 2024, pp 325-357 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter is devoted to the introduction of the dynamic adaptive methodology (DAM) supporting monitor-and-adapt decision-making. This best-of-breed methodology comprises several known deep-uncertainty handling methods to answer the capital project context. It is realized as a dynamic adaptive system (DAS), in which three components—framework (context and requirement), a DAS process and tools—are introduced in this chapter. Most of cornerstone ideas, concepts and paradigms mulled over in this book are absorbed by the DAM. Accordingly, the DAS process could be understood as an ultimate PRM process covering and integrating all other discussed processes: they are absorbed by the DAS process as fragments. The DAS handle deep L5 and L6 uncertainties stemming from multiple and evolving external environment future states. In terms of three project subsystems—external environment subsystem (EES), project structure subsystem (PSS) and project delivery subsystem (PDS)—discussions in this chapter reflect on EES–PSS mismatches, especially when those are induced by the EES part of them. Indeed, a wrongly forecast external environment futures inevitably mean a wrongly defined and executed project doomed to failure. A simplistic business case study to demonstrate the implementation of some of the DAS process steps is provided. Systems dynamics modelling is put forward for the project external environment’s future telling.

Keywords: Dynamic adaptive methodology (DAM); Dynamic adaptive system (DAS); External environment futures; Project alternative’s selection; Causal loop diagrams (CLD); Exploratory modelling (SD); Scenario development (SD); Space-domain criterion; Time-domain criterion; Adaptation signal (AS); Adaptation tipping point (ATP); Alternative’s switchover “subway map” (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-56988-3_11

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-56988-3_11

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