Preliminary Conclusions

Yuri G. Raydugin
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Yuri G. Raydugin: Risk Services & Solutions Inc.

Chapter Chapter 12 in Risk-Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty, 2024, pp 359-368 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter summarizes major observations and conclusions. As alluded in the Preface, the traditional PRM occupies “few hills in a valley surrounded by mountains forming the actual PRM landscape”. It showcases a “PRM journey diary” describing several stops following the “PRM roadmap” drawn at the beginning of the book. Hence, this journey is a trip from foothills to mountains having a top summit as a final destination. The journey is featured by growing levels of complexities and uncertainties. The take-off point is the traditional PRM (“the hills”). The first stop offers a view on the risk-based and economic-based alternative’s selection (RBEBAS). The second helps take a look at cost escalation modelling. The following two stops show splendid views on project complexity, risk interactions, nonlinear Monte Carlo methodology and systems dynamics modelling. The final destination on a top of a “PRM summit” offers a magnificent view on dynamic adaptive methodology (DAM) and monitor-and-adapt decision-making. All the other stops could be seen below as a part of this “general PRM scenery” including “small traditional PRM hills” in a distance. This summary chapter is concluded with “a journey expense report” to review costs of project complexity mishandling and deep uncertainty ignoring.

Keywords: Predict-then-act decision-making; Monitor-and-adapt decision-making; Robust decision-making; Risk-based and economic-based alternative’s selection (RBEBAS); Cost escalation modelling; Risk interactions; Nonlinear Monte Carlo methodology; Systems dynamics modelling; Project system’s complexity; Game theory; Deep uncertainty; Dynamic adaptive methodology (DAM); “Hiding hand”; “Revealing hand” (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-56988-3_12

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-56988-3_12

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