World Economy: Some Trends and Their Possible Consequences

Sergiy Korablin ()
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Sergiy Korablin: The National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

A chapter in The Geoeconomics of the International Monetary Order, 2025, pp 3-26 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Given the global trends, China is able to become the world's largest economy by 2033. Meanwhile, the USA maintains leadership among the G-7 and BRICS countries in the field of efficient distribution and use of production resources. No other country in these two groups even comes close to US labor productivity. Against this background, there is every reason to expect an intensification of the technological, economic, and financial confrontation between the USA and China. According to current trends, the gap between the G7 and BRICS in world GDP will narrow significantly by 2033. The former will lose their overwhelming position over the latter. This will increase competition between these two groups, both between themselves and for the sympathy and loyalty of countries in the Global South. The poor and poorest countries will be stuck in a “low-income trap”. The population of such countries will grow in absolute and relative terms. This will exacerbate migration crises and tensions between the Global South and North.

Keywords: World economy; USA; China; G-7; BRICS; GDP; International structure; Labor productivity; Labor force; High-income countries; Upper middle-income countries; Lower middle-income countries; Low-income countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-90851-4_1

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-90851-4_1

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