Climate-Related Extensions of the Lee-Carter Model

Imma Lory Aprea, Francesca Perla, Raffaele Clemente Petrella (), Mariafortuna Pietroluongo and Salvatore Scognamiglio
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Imma Lory Aprea: University of Naples “Parthenope”, Department of Economics, Law, Cybersecurity, and Sports Sciences
Francesca Perla: University of Naples “Parthenope”, Department of Management and Quantitative Studies
Raffaele Clemente Petrella: University of Naples “Parthenope”, Department of Economic and Legal Studies
Mariafortuna Pietroluongo: University of Naples “Parthenope”, Department of Business and Economic Studies
Salvatore Scognamiglio: University of Naples “Parthenope”, Department of Management and Quantitative Studies

A chapter in New Perspectives in Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance, 2025, pp 38-49 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This study examines the impact of climate risk-related variables on mortality patterns across diverse population groups. An innovative version of the Lee-Carter model is proposed, incorporating a climate risk-related variable - specifically, $$\text {CO2}$$ CO2 emissions - to enhance the accuracy of mortality prediction. A three-step estimation process using Ordinary Least Squares is employed to calibrate the model parameters. Experiments conducted on data from 42 populations indicate that integrating climate risk information leads to more accurate mortality predictions. Especially, combining climate variables with macroeconomic indicators such as GDP yields further improvements in forecast performance.

Keywords: Mortality Modelling; Stochastic Models; Climate risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-032-05551-4_4

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-05551-4_4

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