Macroeconomic Constraints and Development Strategy

Hinh T. Dinh ()
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Hinh T. Dinh: Policy Center for the New South and Economic Growth and Transformation

Chapter 7 in Vietnam's Economic Leap, 2025, pp 179-198 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Vietnam facesGlobal Value Chains (GVCs) mounting macroeconomic constraints due to demographic shifts, climate risks, and narrowing fiscal space. The country’s demographic dividend is shrinking as aging-related social security costs rise. Global financial conditions, including high interest rates, have reduced Vietnam’s monetary policy flexibility. Vietnam also faces other challenges such as slowing export demand, inflationary pressures, and financial vulnerabilities caused by its debt composition, particularly short-term and variable-rate obligations. To navigate this complex environment, this chapter proposes three key pillars: strengthening macroeconomic buffers, leveraging technology to improve productivity, and promoting structural transformation through innovation and long-term investment in education and institutions.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-08904-5_7

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