Retrospective Modeling of the Impact of Vaccination and Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the COVID-19 Pandemic

Hugo Flores-Arguedas (), José Ariel Camacho-Gutiérrez () and Fernando Saldaña ()
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Hugo Flores-Arguedas: Arkansas State University Campus Queretaro
José Ariel Camacho-Gutiérrez: Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California
Fernando Saldaña: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Matemáticas, Campus Juriquilla

A chapter in Handbook of Visual, Experimental and Computational Mathematics, 2026, pp 1555-1572 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been critical in the fight against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Nevertheless, these sanitary measures were partially lifted due to socioeconomic factors, causing a worrisome rebound of the epidemic in several countries. A point of interest in the research community is to assess the effectiveness of the mitigation strategies implemented to constrain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and estimate the health impact of exit strategies. A question of particular importance was to investigate the trade-off between optimal lockdown intensity and vaccination coverage. These issues are addressed using a mechanistic Kermack–McKendrick-type model and a monthly Bayesian inference using laboratory-confirmed cases in the Mexican territory. The results suggest that in the absence of sanitary measures, the cumulative number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths would have been at least twice the official number in Mexico. Moreover, for low vaccine coverage levels, relaxing non-pharmaceutical interventions may dramatically increase the disease burden; therefore, safety measures are of critical importance at the early stages of vaccination. The simulations also suggest that for a limited vaccine supply, vaccinating a high number of people with a single dose would prevent more deaths and hospitalizations than giving two doses for a small number of people.

Keywords: COVID-19; Mathematical model; Disease modeling; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Vaccination (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-16368-4_43

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