Seasonal Forecasts

Nick T. Thomopoulos ()
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Nick T. Thomopoulos: Illinois Institute of Technology

Chapter 5 in Demand Forecasting for Inventory Control, 2015, pp 59-69 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Seasonal forecasts Seasonal forecasts Forecasts are needed when the demands over a year have a cyclical flow Cyclical flow such as the rise for light clothing during the summers; heavy clothing during the winters, school supplies in late summers; antifreeze during the winters; golf balls in the summers; cold tablets in the winters; and sunglasses in the summers. Two forecast model Forecast model s are described: the seasonal smoothing Smoothing multiplicative Multiplicative forecast model, and the seasonal smoothing additive Additive forecast model. Perhaps the most common application of the model is when the demands are monthly covering 12 months in a year. The seasonal multiplicative model Seasonal multiplicative model is described fully with example data. The model has two stages: first is to initialize the forecasts using the most current N history demands, and second is to revise the forecasts as each new monthly demand becomes available.

Keywords: Seasonal Forecasts; Multiplicative Seasonal Model; Seasonal Smoothing; Cold Tablets; Historical Demand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-319-11976-2_5

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-11976-2_5

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