Conceptual Structure of Performance Assessments for Geologic Disposal of Radioactive Waste

Jon C. Helton (), Clifford W. Hansen () and Cédric J. Salaberry ()
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Jon C. Helton: Sandia National Laboratories, Thermal Sciences and Engineering Department
Clifford W. Hansen: Sandia National Laboratories, Photovoltaics and Distributed Systems Department
Cédric J. Salaberry: Sandia National Laboratories, Applied Systems Analysis and Research Department

Chapter 44 in Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification, 2017, pp 1503-1539 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract A conceptual structure for performance assessments (PAs) for radioactive waste disposal facilities and other complex engineered facilities based on the following three basic conceptual entities is described: EN1, a probability space that characterizes aleatory uncertainty; EN2, a function that predicts consequences for individual elements of the sample space for aleatory uncertainty; and EN3, a probability space that characterizes epistemic uncertainty. This structure provides a basis for (i) a separation of the effects and implications of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty; (ii) the design, computational implementation, and documentation of a PA for a complex system; and (iii) informative uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The implementation of this structure is illustrated with results from PAs for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant for transuranic radioactive waste and the proposed Yucca Mountain repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste.

Keywords: Aleatory uncertainty; Epistemic uncertainty; Performance assessment; Radioactive waste; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-12385-1_46

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