Consolidating Multiple Naïve Forecasts with Monte Carlo

Cynthia Fraser
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Cynthia Fraser: University of Virginia, McIntire School of Commerce

Chapter Chapter 6 in Business Statistics for Competitive Advantage with Excel 2016, 2016, pp 175-186 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The modeling team compared export market forecasts for the U.S. and Latin America, shown in Figure 6.1. Exports to the U.S. were much more consistent, stable and predictable. The trend accounted for 93% of the variation in U.S. exports, and the margin of error in forecasts was small, .24 ML. However, forecast growth was low, 4 to 5% per year. Exports to Latin America differed. While the trend accounted for 92% of the variation in Latin American exports, the margin of error was larger, .51ML. Yet future growth was higher, 5 to 9% per year.

Keywords: Prediction Interval; Export Market; Export Volume; Case Outcome; Forecast Volume (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-319-32185-1_6

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-32185-1_6

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