Introduction

Jeff Grover
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Jeff Grover: Grover Group, Inc.

Chapter Chapter 1 in The Manual of Strategic Economic Decision Making, 2016, pp 1-18 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The theory behind Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) and Bayes’ theorem is becoming increasingly applicable in economic decision-making in today’s human capital and economic markets across all business, government, and commercial segments in the new global economy. The economic end state of these markets is clearly to maximize stakeholder wealth effectively and efficiently. The question remains, are we? To respond to this question, this chapter provides a discussion of quintessential Bayes’, scope, motivation, intent, utility of the theorem and BBN. Then an introduction to Bayes’ Theorem and BBN and a discussion of inductive versus deductive logic, Popper’s logic of scientific discovery, frequentist versus Bayesian (subjective) views and philosophy, the identification of the truth, finally a classic illustration of the Monty Hall Game Show Paradox.

Keywords: Inductive Reasoning; Inductive Logic; Frequency Theory; Subject Matter Expertise; Bayesian Belief Network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-319-48414-3_1

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-48414-3_1

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