Strategic Economic Decision-Making-I Chapter Examples

Jeff Grover
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Jeff Grover: Grover Group, Inc.

Chapter Chapter 5 in The Manual of Strategic Economic Decision Making, 2016, pp 65-93 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter republishes the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) examples in Grover (2013) using the 9-step protocol of that manual. Manufacturing Example, Political Science Example, Gambling Example, Publicly Traded Company Example, Insurance Example, Acts of Terrorism Example, Currency Wars Example, College Entrance Exams Example, Special Forces Assessment and Selection, Two-Node Example, and Special Forces Assessment and Selection Three-Node Example. This 9-step protocol includes: Step 1: Identify a population of interest, Step 2: Specify a BBN with joint and/or disjoint Nodes, Step 3: Slice through each node, and identify at a minimum, two mutually exclusive or disjoint (unconditional) events, which are the subsets of our population, Step 4: Conduct the random experiment, Step 5: Determine frequency counts, Step 6: Determine prior or unconditional probabilities. Step 7: Determine likelihood probabilities, Step 8: Determine joint and marginal probabilities, and Step 9: Determine posterior probabilities.

Keywords: Determine Joint; Three-node Example; Node Disjoint; Random Experiment; Unconditional Probability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-48414-3_5

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