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Modelling Imports and Exports of Goods in France, Distinguishing Between Intra and Extra Euro Area Trade

Bertrand Pluyaud ()
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Bertrand Pluyaud: Banque de France

A chapter in Convergence or Divergence in Europe?, 2006, pp 325-359 from Springer

Abstract: Summary This paper presents equations for intra and extra euro area trade for France. Volumes and prices of imports and exports of goods are modelled. Dynamic simulations, residual tests and rolling forecasts indicate that the equations have satisfactory forecasting properties. However, trends and dummy variables are often added and competitiveness effects are not always well captured, probably due to inadequate data. Among other results, we find a stronger long run elasticity to price competitiveness for intra than for extra euro area exports, and positive contributions of price competitiveness to non energy import growth since 1999, probably due to evolutions in costs rather than in exchange rates.

Keywords: intra and extra euro area trade; time series models; France external trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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DOI: 10.1007/3-540-32611-1_14

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