Probabilistic Description of Traffic Breakdown

Reinhard Mahnke () and Reinhart Kühne ()
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Reinhard Mahnke: Rostock University, Institute of Physics
Reinhart Kühne: German Aerospace Center, Institute of Transportation Research

A chapter in Traffic and Granular Flow’05, 2007, pp 527-536 from Springer

Abstract: Summary Traffic breakdowns are described by a balance equation that models the dynamics of jam formation by the following two contributions. There are discharge rate depending on the length of the congestion and an adhesion rate mainly depending on the traffic volume of the considered road section. With this balance equation it is feasible to calculate the dynamics of traffic pattern formation especially the first passage time for a transition from free flow condition to congested traffic including the influence of the parameters affecting the discharge and adhesion rates. As a simple approximation we consider constant attachment rate as well as constant detachment rate. Starting with the probability density and furtheron with the cumulative probability for breakdowns the change in the incident duration distribution is calculated and qualitatively given. The paper concludes with recommendations for a comprehensive operation improvement and provides necessary steps for a long lasting stabilization of traffic for a given vehicular flow time series pattern.

Keywords: Weibull Distribution; Cluster Evolution; Probabilistic Description; Drift Parameter; Headway Distance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-540-47641-2_50

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-47641-2_50

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