Interpreting Longitudinal Data, Part 1 – Looking to the Past

Othmar W. Winkler
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Othmar W. Winkler: Georgetown University, The McDonough School of Business

Chapter Chapter 5 in Interpreting Economic and Social Data, 2009, pp 63-85 from Springer

Abstract: Let me start this chapter with a piece of Chinese wisdom, not because of its superficial similarity to the ‘mountains’ in the graph of a time-series, but because it expresses the evolution of my own thinking on this matter. The present state of time-series analysis seems captive in the second phase mentioned by Chin-Yuan Wei-Hsin, where things as vital as waters and mountains, under the guidance of learned teachers, are understood to be something else. In analogy, statistical concepts and ideas that have ignored the true nature of socio-economic data dominate our approach to their longitudinal analysis. Chapters 2, 3 and 4 laid the foundation for a more realistic approach to time-series, arriving finally, like the old monk, at the unromantic realization about the true nature of ‘mountains and waters’.

Keywords: Business Cycle; Seasonal Pattern; Moving Average; Construction Activity; Conceptual Space (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-540-68721-4_5

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-68721-4_5

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