Longitudinal Analysis, Part 2 –Looking to the Future

Othmar W. Winkler
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Othmar W. Winkler: Georgetown University, The McDonough School of Business

Chapter Chapter 6 in Interpreting Economic and Social Data, 2009, pp 87-99 from Springer

Abstract: Bluntly stated, it does not seem possible for anybody to predict the future, be that of an individual person, of an industry or of an entire economy. We are occasionally reminded of this, as in the sudden emergence of the world oil crisis of 1973 which hit the western economies unprepared, an episode which apparently nobody had anticipated. Anyone trying to determine the future is faced with this conundrum: it really cannot be done, yet it is necessary to know and must be attempted nonetheless.

Keywords: Time Series; Longitudinal Analysis; Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy; Dynamic Linear Model; Decimal Fraction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-68721-4_6

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