A Substitution Orbit Model of Competitive Innovations

Chihiro Watanabe ()
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Chihiro Watanabe: 2-12-1 W 9-49 Ookayama

Chapter 4 in Managing Innovation in Japan, 2009, pp 57-80 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Successful innovation and diffusion of technology can be attributed to the identification of the orbit of emerging new technologies that complement or substitute for existing technologies. This dynamism resembles the co-evolution process in an ecosystem. In an ecosystem, in order to maintain sustainable development, the complex interplay between competition and cooperation, typically observed in predator–prey systems, create a sophisticated balance. Given that an ecosystem can be used as a masterpiece system, this sophisticated balance can provide suggestive ideas for identifying an optimal orbit of competitive innovations with complement or substitution dynamism. Prompted by such a sophisticated balance in an ecosystem, this paper analyzes the optimal orbit of competitive innovations, and on the basis of an application of Lotka–Volterra equations, it reviews substitution orbits of Japan's monochrome to color TV system, fixed telephones to cellular telephones, cellular telephones to mobile internet access service, and analog to digital TV broadcasting. On the basis of substitution orbits analyses, it attempts to extract suggestions supportive to identifying an optimal policy option in a complex orbit leading to expected orbit. Key findings include policy options that are effective in controlling parameters for Lotka–Volterra equations leading to expected orbit. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change 71, No. 4, C. Watanabe, R. Kondo, N. Ouchi and H. Wei, A Substitution Orbit Model of Competitive Innovations, pages: 365–390, copyright (2004), with permission from Elsevier.

Keywords: Logistic Growth; Volterra Equation; Cellular Telephone; Business Ecosystem; Complex Orbit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-540-89272-4_4

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-89272-4_4

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