Forecasting the Output Values of Taiwan Bicycles and Spare Parts with Fourier Modified Grey Model

Lei-Chuan Lin (), Shan-Yau Wu and Ying-Fang Huang
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Lei-Chuan Lin: National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences
Shan-Yau Wu: National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences
Ying-Fang Huang: National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences

A chapter in Proceedings of 2013 4th International Asia Conference on Industrial Engineering and Management Innovation (IEMI2013), 2014, pp 989-997 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In this study, the conventional Grey forecasting model GM(1,1) was investigated. And to enhance the accuracy of the forecasting model, the residuals were modified with Fourier series. The Fourier modified models called FGM(1,1) have very low values of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.18 % and 2.63 %, respectively to the case of output values of bicycles and spare parts in Taiwan. These models were also tested for their forecasting ability in year 2011 that resulted in MAPE values of 8.45 % and 5.71 % respectively which make the models considered good to do the forecasting for the years 2012–2015.

Keywords: Fourier residual modification; FGM (1; 1); GM (1; 1) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-642-40060-5_95

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-40060-5_95

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