Strategy

Thomas Schneider

Chapter 14 in Digitalization and Artificial Intelligence, 2023, pp 75-81 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract One fact about obvious winners is as popular as it is wrong: people look at the winners, their similarities, in order to develop laws from them. The lesson to be learned from the losers is to look at the initial set, not the final set. People have far too much confidence in their predictions. For example, people were asked to give an estimate that they were 98% certain to be correct. This should have put the error rate at 2%, but it was actually 45%. People can’t really plan because they don’t understand the future, but that doesn’t need to be bad news. However, they can plan in a limited way by accepting the limitations shown. When there is great uncertainty and limited data, early action should be taken. Prolonged deliberation does not necessarily lead to better decisions.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-658-40383-6_14

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