Thread Steel Price Index Prediction in China Based On ARIMA Model

Zhishuo Liu (), Shuang Zhu (), Yongcong Wang (), Baopeng Zhang () and Lingyun Wei ()
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Zhishuo Liu: Beijing Jiaotong University
Shuang Zhu: Beijing Jiaotong University
Yongcong Wang: Beijing Jiaotong University
Baopeng Zhang: Beijing Jiaotong University
Lingyun Wei: Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications

A chapter in LISS 2014, 2015, pp 609-614 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Thread Steel price can be well represented the changing tendency of the china steel market price. Aiming at the problems of price index on the steel production and sales ,the ARIMA model based on the time series analysis provides the basic theory and a good solution. According to the price index data of the China thread steel market from January 1, 2013 to October 30, 2013, the ARIMA(3,1,4) model is established to analyze and forecast the first ten period of China thread steel price index in November 2013.the result shows that the short-term (four phases) forecast is very efficient with mean error only 0.68 %;while the long-term (ten phases) predictive error is 1.94 %, which is not ideal. so the short-term predictive result of the established model is reasonably reliable, and has good application value,which further verifies the ARIMA model is suitable for short-term forecast of sample data sequence.

Keywords: Thread steel price index; The ARIMA model; Prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-662-43871-8_88

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-43871-8_88

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