Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Markets under Policy Constraints: A Retrospective Case Study

C. Ritson and A. Fearne
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C. Ritson: University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Department of Agricultural Economics and Food Marketing
A. Fearne: University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Department of Agricultural Economics and Food Marketing

A chapter in Advances in Stochastic Modelling and Data Analysis, 1995, pp 195-206 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This paper considers, retrospectively, a forecast of UK and EEC milk production in 1995 made in the mid-1980s. The forecast arose out of a request by a large agri-business firm to consider a future marketing environment which was becoming increasingly dominated by EEC policy decisions. Because of this, conventional commodity market forecasting techniques were inappropriate. A Baysian approach was adopted and incorporated into a Delphi survey.

Keywords: Milk Production; Price Policy; Common Agricultural Policy; Quota System; Delphi Survey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-94-017-0663-6_13

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DOI: 10.1007/978-94-017-0663-6_13

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