Comprehensive Economic Loss Assessment of Disaster Based on CGE Model and IO model—A Case Study on Beijing “7.21 Rainstorm”

Xianhua Wu () and Ji Guo ()
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Xianhua Wu: Shanghai Maritime University
Ji Guo: Shanghai Maritime University

Chapter Chapter 4 in Economic Impacts and Emergency Management of Disasters in China, 2021, pp 105-136 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The economic loss evaluation of disaster is the basis for disaster prevention and disaster emergency management and thus needs to be solved urgently. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and input–output (IO) model are the major disaster assessment methods, which each have their own strengths and weaknesses currently. However, few comparative researches have been conducted on the economic losses of one disaster evaluated by CGE Model and IO Model based on the same disaster impact. Therefore, this paper, taking the Beijing “7.21 Rainstorm” in 2012 as an example, from the direct loss of agricultural and transportation sectors, used CGE Model and IO Model to calculate the comprehensive economic loss ratios of sectors and the final output loss of economic system, and then determined the range of the economic loss caused by the rainstorm. The results showed that: (1) CGE Model has a greater spillover effect upon sectors and a wider distribution of disaster-affected sectors than IO Model; (2) the range of economic loss determined by the assessment results of CGE Model and IO Model is [67.9396, 74.2739] (100 million yuan); (3) agricultural, transportation, and mining sectors are high-sensitivity sectors to rainstorm disasters. Through the comparison of the two models, the accurate economic loss of disaster can be obtained, according to which governments can take targeted measures for the prevention and early warning of disasters.

Keywords: Computable general equilibrium model; Input–output model; Comprehensive economic loss; “7.21 Rainstorm” (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/978-981-16-1319-7_4

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