A Multi-type Branching Process Model for Epidemics with Application to COVID-19 in India

Arnab Kumar Laha ()
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Arnab Kumar Laha: Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad

A chapter in Strategic Management, Decision Theory, and Decision Science, 2021, pp 51-58 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we use the theory of Multi-type Branching Process with Poisson offspring distribution to model the spread of an infectious disease epidemic that takes into account quarantine and contact tracing. The key characteristics of the proposed process is examined theoretically. The basic model is then extended to allow for time variation in the parameters of the process that makes it suitable for application in situations where some intervention is used to reduce the spread of the infection. The models are then applied to the publicly available data on the spread of the COVID-19 infection in India. It is found that the extended model, that takes into account the effect of the national lockdown, provides a better fit for the data.

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-981-16-1368-5_4

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DOI: 10.1007/978-981-16-1368-5_4

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