The Impact of SARS-CoV-2 on Economic Activity of Mexico in 2020

José Antonio Núñez Mora () and Leovardo Mata Mata ()
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José Antonio Núñez Mora: Tecnológico de Monterrey
Leovardo Mata Mata: Universidad Anáhuac México

A chapter in The Future of Companies in the Face of a New Reality, 2021, pp 1-15 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In this document, the economic effect of Covid-19 on the economic activity of Mexico in 2020 is quantified, separating the impact of the trend that has been observed in recent years. The procedure used is an ARIMA model with an intervention that incorporates the NIG probability distribution, where it is found that the explained variance of the seasonally adjusted time series of the IGAE due to Covid-19 is 44.20% and due to the administration on duty 18.89%. These two estimates quantify that Covid-19 came to aggravate the recessionary economic situation that existed since 2019.

Keywords: Covid-19; SARS-CoV-2; ARIMA; Recession; NIG (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 I15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-981-16-2613-5_1

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DOI: 10.1007/978-981-16-2613-5_1

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