Decision Modeling with Risk Cascading Propagation Effects

Chen Peng (), Hongfeng Wang (), Yi Yang () and Yong Zhang ()
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Chen Peng: Shanghai University, School of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation
Hongfeng Wang: Northeastern University
Yi Yang: Shanghai University
Yong Zhang: China University of Mining and Technology, School of Information and Control Engineering

Chapter Chapter 5 in Modeling and Resilience Recovery for Disrupted Supply Chain, 2026, pp 91-117 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract To address the uncertainty of risk propagation in product and SC change systems under COVID-19, this chapter proposes an assessment-to-control decision support scheme. The bullwhip effect (BE), integrating operational and behavioral causes, is quantified as cascading amplified inventory fluctuations, while the ripple effect (RE) from large-scale supplier disruptions is measured by increased entropy rates (ERs). A closed-loop control system is constructed, and criteria for the existence of controller gains are derived to stabilize the system and mitigate BE under RE. A mask SC case study verifies the scheme’s effectiveness: the controller significantly suppresses BE even with RE, and control theory confirms that RE drives BE amplification. This chapter provides reliable support for SC risk decision-making.

Keywords: Supply chain risk propagation; Bullwhip effect; Ripple effect; Control theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1007/978-981-95-4901-6_5

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