Predicting Future Rainfall Scenario in the Brazilian Amazon and Its Socio-Economic Impacts

Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho (), João Paulo Assis Gobo, José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior, David Mendes and Givanildo de Gois
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Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho: Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL), Federal University of Rio Grande (FURG)
João Paulo Assis Gobo: Federal University of Rondônia (UNIR)
José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior: Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL)
David Mendes: Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)
Givanildo de Gois: Federal University of Acre (UFAC)

Chapter Chapter 9 in Climate Change and Regional Socio-Economic Systems in the Global South, 2024, pp 155-170 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The Amazon is one of the most important ecosystems in the planet's climate balance. For rainfall patterns in South America, predicting future climate scenarios to the spatial–temporal dynamics of rainfall in the Legal Amazon is essential. In this chapter, we sought to evaluate the spatial–temporal distribution of rainfall in the Legal Amazon based on the SSP5-8.5 scenario for the temporal lag of the 2081–2100 period. Numerical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models from the Sixth Assessment Report (CMIP6-AR6) were used to calculate the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). The results indicated greater variability along the time series, intensified after 2061, and a progressive reduction in the SPI for the long-term scenarios, as well as statistically significant increases for temperature extremes and drought severity in some regions, mainly in the eastern Amazon. In addition, the results indicate that the severity of drought and flood events in the future could cause significant socio-economic losses in the states of Amazonas and Acre.

Keywords: CMIP6; Drought; Eastern Amazon; Rainfall; Standard Precipitation Index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/978-981-97-3870-0_9

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