Structural Time-Series Model

Richard S. Conway ()
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Richard S. Conway: Dick Conway and Associates

Chapter Chapter 6 in Empirical Regional Economics, 2022, pp 139-167 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The Puget Sound Forecasting Model is a structural time-series model of the greater Seattle area. Its foremost objective is to produce accurate predictions. The model generates quarterly forecasts over two and ten-year periods. Since 1993 the forecasts have been reported in The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster, a quarterly newsletter on the regional economy. Principal variables predicted by the model include personal income, employment (18 categories), the unemployment rate, the consumer price index, population, retail sales, housing permits, the average home price, and the apartment vacancy rate. As a means of minimizing prediction error, the model combines a structural regression model (one with explanatory variables) with a time-series (ARIMA) model of the residuals.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-76646-7_6

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