Uncertainty Modelling

Işık Biçer
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Işık Biçer: York University

Chapter Chapter 4 in Supply Chain Analytics, 2023, pp 121-157 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Organizations attempt to create value for their customers while managing different uncertainties. Uncertainties in supply chains offer both opportunities and challenges to decision-makers. We start this chapter by reviewing three uncertainty types (i.e. truth, epistemological and ontological uncertainty) and discuss why the ontological uncertainty deserves special attention. We study the uncertainty modelling approach along two dimensions to address the challenges of managing the ontological uncertainty. First, we introduce the additive and multiplicative demand models to capture the evolutionary dynamics of uncertainty. Second, we focus on advanced methods, such as the fast Fourier transformation (FFT) and demand regularization, to model complex demand dynamics when demand is formed as combination of different uncertain elements.

Keywords: Ontological uncertainty; Evolutionary demand models; Integration of multiple uncertain elements; Fast Fourier transform (FFT); Demand regularization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sptchp:978-3-031-30347-0_4

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-30347-0_4

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