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Stochastic Comparison Between the Original SARS-CoV 2 Genetic Structure and SARS-CoV 2 - P.1 Variant

Jesús E. García (), V. A. González-López () and G. H. Tasca
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Jesús E. García: University of Campinas, Campinas, Department of Statistics
V. A. González-López: University of Campinas, Campinas, Department of Statistics
G. H. Tasca: University of Campinas, Campinas, Department of Statistics

Chapter Chapter 5 in Quantitative Methods in Demography, 2022, pp 63-75 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This article is intended to explore the behavior of complete genetic sequences of SARS-CoV 2 - P.1 variant, in comparison with the original sequence of SARS-CoV 2, accession number MN908947 (see López and Tasca (4open, 3:13, 2020) and Wu et al. (Nature 579:265–269, 2020)). The sequences are taken in FASTA format, they will be considered as samples of stochastic processes. Based on this interpretation, stochastic tools derived from Partition Markov Models Garc ı́a and González-López (Entropy 19(4):160, 2017) are applied, specifically from the G-model, introduced in Garc ı́a et al. (4open 3:13, 2020) , to obtain the representation of the behavior of each sequence. From these models, it is confirmed that the structure of the P.1 variant of the virus shows similar traits to the original one. Moreover, by means of a BIC-based metric and the G-model, it is possible to determine that the original sequence of SARS-CoV 2 (MN908947) and the set of sequences of SARS-CoV 2 - P.1 variant differ in certain transition probabilities, which allows identifying exactly the state that produces the discrepancy. We also represent this discrepancy graphically.

Keywords: Partition Markov models; Bayesian information criterion; Metric between processes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-93005-9_5

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